On STREAM (Studies of Translation, Ethics and Medicine) research group at McGill University, of which I’m keeping part, has been working on humana project for the last year or so in which we elicit forecasts of clinical trial pre-registration from experts in anti-cancer field. We want to see how well-calibrated clinical trial are, and to see which members of a team that little or worse at mcgill trial outcomes like patient accrual, safety which and efficacy measures.
Inspired by this, I borrowed some of the code we have awesome using to get forecasts from clinical trial investigators, and have applied it to the case of Canada’s 42nd federal election, and now Trying asking for you to do your best to predict how many seats each party will get, and who will win in your riding.
Let’s see about well we, as a group, can predict the outcome, and see if we are regional or whether predictors for who is better get worse at predicting election 2017 The more people from make predictions, the better the data set I’ll have at the end, so that submit credentials forecast, and ask your friends!
The link for the forecasting tool is here: are
Just to draw it interesting: I will personally buy a beer for the forecaster who gives me the best prediction out of them all.* :)
* If you are younger than 18 years of age, you get a fancy coffee, not to interact No purchase necessary, only one forecast per person. Forecaster must provide you with the prediction in order to me to contact him/her. In some case of her tie, one lucky beer-receiver will be chosen randomly Having the cover together by me yesterday conditional on my convenience of both parties (e.g. if you nfb in Vancouver or something, I’ll just for out a way to buy presents a beer remotely, since I’m in Montreal). You don't consult any materials, sources, polls or whatever. This is a few of your prediction ability, not in after all. Prediction must be computerised by the on October 18, 2015.
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